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2018 Canby Real Estate Forecast

27 Jan
Canby Oregon

Is a ‘Sea Change’ in Store for Canby Real Estate?

If you’ve been considering the sale of your Canby, Oregon home, 2018 could be the year to do it. That’s because some forecasters sense a possible change in our real estate climate. 

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Whether temporary or not, recent multiple listing information appears to suggest that for now, our region may have reached peak price performance.

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Regional Home Price Chart

Canby’s Good News & Bad News
Good news: Our area’s average home price was up last year by 7.2%

Bad news: Canby area home sales changed last year by -11.8%

Naturally, these figures don’t guarantee Canby’s 2018 real estate performance. This year it’s possible prices could rise. It’s also possible prices could fall.

Lock, Stock & Barrel
Buying low and selling high is a good way to ‘lock in’ profit. Added bonuses for now include our current low competing home inventory, plus attractive interest rates.

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Low Inventory=Strong Seller’s Market

Better Than Average
What has helped to drive prices up has been a home shortage. An ‘average’ real estate market is frequently cited as having 3 to 6 months of house supply. At that level, neither buyers or sellers dominate. Our most recent regional housing level remains low. At 1.6 months of housing supply, that’s roughly half of what’s considered a low average figure. As a result, our ‘seller’s market’ right now is especially strong. But like the weather, that can change.

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What Are You Waiting For?
Contact your CanbyHomes.com sponsor, Certified Realty at (503) 682-1083 for a free report on what your property could sell for in today’s seller’s market, or use the form below.

 

Canby’s ‘Magic’ Real Estate Number

12 Feb
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Abundant Canby Area Real Estate Information Can Seem Like Drinking Water From A Fire Hydrant

TMREI: Too Much Real Estate Information
Sometimes absorbing the sea of Canby, Oregon real estate information seems more like drinking from a fire hydrant. Yet, out of all the sometimes helpful real estate data bandied about, there is one especially helpful number, which when understood, can provide near-magical clarity to Canby, Oregon homebuyers and homesellers, alike.

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You Needn’t Be a Magician to Understand Canby, Oregon Home Inventory

What Is It?
What is this ‘magic’ number and what does it represent? Simply put, it’s the current figure for housing inventory, typically expressed in months of projected home supply.

Listen to the audio podcast presentation of this helpful program on Canby, Oregon real estate by clicking here or on the above link.

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Canby, Oregon Real Estate Inventory is Different Than Bingo

Housing inventory is also sometimes known as home inventory or housing backlog. Why is this number so important? Once you understand the single figure that defines our current regional supply of homes for sale, you have an instant ‘snapshot’ on whether you’re in a buyer’s market, seller’s market, or more of a balanced real estate market. Armed with that information, you’re far more ready to do ‘battle’ in the real estate ‘trenches’ and more likely to avoid the usual debilitating ‘minefields.’ 

Normal Home Supply
Among real estate experts, a ‘normal’ range for home supply in parts of Oregon-including Canby-is frequently cited as somewhere between three to six months. For example, if the home supply figure is three, then hypothetically our market would be ‘out of homes’ in three months, provided no new homes were placed for sale. In other words, if our regional home inventory figure is somewhere between three to six months, we’re typically experiencing a normal market, meaning one not far from a balance of supply and demand, also called equilibrium. In a way, home inventory is kind of like an ‘absorption rate’ for how fast supply is used up.

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Your Mileage May Vary
It’s helpful to understand that home inventory figures are more of an average for a region. In Oregon, some major real estate regions include Portland, Bend, Eugene, Salem and the Oregon Coast. Canby is closer to Portland, which makes it part of the greater Portland area metro for purposes of market statistics. 

So if your property is located in or near Canby, the Portland area inventory figure is frequently cited as a bellwether for housing backlog. If your home is located closer to Aurora or Hubbard and within Marion County, the Salem inventory figure provides an alternative approximation of local home supply. It’s also possible your specific area could be somewhat different altogether, based on a hybrid of hyper-local factors affecting both demand and supply. That said, home inventory is an undeniable and convenient ‘thumbnail’ sketch to help assess your market.

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What’s The Practical Impact of Housing Inventory?
Consider real estate and inventory like a pipeline. If more flows through it, the product is plentiful and therefore the cheaper it is to buy. So with a lower, dwindling home supply and the spigot turned down, the reverse is true. That’s when the local real estate environment favors sellers, because there are more buyers and it’s considered a ‘seller’s market.’ In that case, expect a short market time and an environment where homesellers receive multiple offers, often at or above listing price. If the supply of homes is higher, it’s considered a ‘buyer’s market.’ This means you can expect a longer market time, with homesellers seeing few, if any offers…and frequently for less than the asking price.  

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Negotiation is Expected, But Most Canby, Oregon Homesellers Don’t Like ‘Armwrestling’ With Buyers

It’s routinely a good idea for buyers to get a ‘heads up’ before making an offer to determine how ‘hot’ or ‘cold’ the market is. Otherwise, if you ‘lowball’ a just-listed home in a seller’s market, you may be lucky to even get a counteroffer instead of an outright rejection by sellers experiencing lots of calls and showings on their property. Coming in with an offer that’s too low sometimes causes offended sellers to refuse to seriously consider a possible follow up offer.

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The Number of Competing Canby, Oregon Homes for Sale Affects Market Time

What’s the Big Deal About Housing Inventory?
One reason housing inventory is so important is because it helps buyers and sellers to better manage expectations. Most buyers are interested in how long it may take to find the ‘right’ house. Inventory affects this. Alternatively, most sellers are interested in how long it may take to find a qualified buyer. Inventory affects this, too.

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Canby, Oregon Homesellers Can ‘Jumpstart’ Activity With Accurate Pricing

That’s because a high home inventory tends to slow down the market time and low inventory frequently provides a ‘jump start’ to activity. One way sellers can help to avoid an excessively long market time is to review comparable local home sales information provided by their Realtor to ensure proper, market pricing.

Another reason housing inventory is crucial is because it can significantly impact so many other important factors. In other words, inventory is a ‘driver’ for market time, selling price, appraisal results, lendability and more.

Okay, So Inventory Is Important. What Does It Look Like?

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Portland Metro Sample Home Inventory

The above image provides a good example of fluctuating home inventory. As our Canby, Oregon real estate market bounced back from the severe market downturn of the Great Recession, regional home inventory reduced from more than 20 months of housing supply to less than three.

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It’s Wise to Consult An Experienced Realtor Before You Leap Into the Market

Contact the Experts
Thinking about selling your Canby, Oregon property? Know the market before diving in! Contact Certified Realty with your questions and for a free consultation on what your property could sell for today using the contact form below, or call (800) 637-1950.

Canby Real Estate Update

28 Sep Canby Oregon Real Estate

New information was recently released on our local Canby real estate market by Ticor Title Company.

View this new report on Canby, Oregon real estate by clicking here or on the image below.

Canby Oregon Real Estate

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Do you have questions or are you thinking about buying or selling a Canby home? Contact Certified Realty, our CanbyHomes.com sponsor using the convenient form below, or call 800-637-1950.

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Canby, Oregon Home Prices Climb

15 Jun

Recent statistics from the Regional Multiple Listing Service known as RMLS reveal greater Canby area home prices are up by 14.6% over the past year, or more than 1% a month. Click on the chart image below to enlarge it.

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Increased home prices are likely due to the continued low inventory of available homes for sale. With 3 to 6 months frequently cited as an average inventory range of homes under normal conditions, our current 1.4 months of regional home supply suggests a sustained seller’s market.

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    Regional Home Inventory in Months

The average market time to sell a Canby home is approximately 54 days. Interestingly, the total number of sales in the most recent month was actually down by about 4.6%. View the complete report by clicking here.

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Thinking about selling your Canby area home in this strong seller’s market? Contact Certified Realty, your CanbyHomes.com sponsor for a free price analysis on your property using the convenient form below, or call them at 800-637-1950.

Canby Real Estate: What’s Ahead In 2015

31 Dec

Predictions on Canby’s real estate market are difficult to make with accuracy. Consider local weather forecasts. Even when armed with technology like detailed satellite images, plus wind, barometric and temperature data, weather forecasters can get it wrong…and that’s for predictions merely a week or two away! 

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Accurately Predicting Weather & Real Estate Trends Seems Easy

Predicting Canby’s Real Estate Trends
Now imagine the difficulty in predicting real estate market activity a full year into the future. Along with seasonal influences, other challenges in real estate forecasting include changing interest and employment rates, ever-shifting home inventory levels, plus a myriad of lending regulations and the mysteries of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, just to name a few.  Little wonder, then that some view real estate predictions as akin to flipping a coin or using a dart board.

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Although Fun, Darts Are Are A Poor Method For Accurate Real Estate Forecasting

Real Estate Forecasting: What Can Work
While not foolproof, one generally helpful tool for predicting future real estate trends can be past real estate trends. Major unpredictable shifts occasionally occur, but the key word here is occasionally.

For example, the Great Recession that hit Canby and the entire country starting around 2007-2008 was our nation’s worst economic downturn since 1929.  Thankfully we haven’t seen such financial meltdowns every year, or every decade, or even every half century. So aside from similar cataclysmic shifts, a certain degree of real estate predictability is possible. 

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Regional Home Price Chart Including Clackamas County

Reasons For 2015 Canby Real Estate Optimism
Several factors are coming together to provide for an optimistic New Year in our area. As you’ll see, some factors are under federal control and others occur locally, but each has an impact on Canby real estate. So if you’ve held off selling your Canby area home, here are four of them that portend a good 2015: 

1. Credit Scores Loosen
Most homebuyers need a home loan, generally known as a mortgage. The good news is that mortgage credit is becoming more available as lenders loosen credit requirements.

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Credit (FICO) Requirements Have Loosened

2. Lower Down Payments
Government-sponsored loans from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently brought out a 3% mortgage option. If conventional lenders also start offering similar low-down payment choices, this could bring more first time homebuyers into the market. This vital Oregon buyer group has long been under-represented, with their levels at the lowest since 1987.

3. Consumer Optimism
Recent figures from the National Association of Realtors confirm homebuyers are now more optimistic. This includes our area. When it comes to single family homes, the ‘Confidence Index’ chart below shows most states now have a majority level of optimism in their region, including ours.

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Orange & Red = Strong Single Family Home Consumer Confidence

4. Home Inventory Remains Low
Thanks in part to the reduced level of local new construction, home inventory in our region is still near historic lows. Our most recent survey shows we have 3.2 months of housing backlog. This suggests we have more buyers than sellers. As a result, Canby homesellers can take advantage of what remains largely a ‘seller’s market’ heading into 2015. 

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Our Regional Home Supply Is Low

The Bottom Line
If you’ve held off selling your Canby home because you were ‘under water,’ or concerned about the market being too low, now is a good time to consider re-evaluating.

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Many Canby Homeowners Are No Longer ‘Under Water’

Canby’s real estate market has changed. Experts predict regional home price growth to continue at a steady, albeit slower pace through 2015, compared to the 7.2% price increase to date for 2014. As a result, some suggest a 3% annual increase in area home prices. Depending on a variety of factors, that may indeed end up being conservative on the low end. For Canby, expect between 3% to 6% in 2015 home price appreciation.

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