Tag Archives: Clackamas County Homes

Canby Real Estate: What’s Ahead In 2015

31 Dec

Predictions on Canby’s real estate market are difficult to make with accuracy. Consider local weather forecasts. Even when armed with technology like detailed satellite images, plus wind, barometric and temperature data, weather forecasters can get it wrong…and that’s for predictions merely a week or two away! 

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Accurately Predicting Weather & Real Estate Trends Seems Easy

Predicting Canby’s Real Estate Trends
Now imagine the difficulty in predicting real estate market activity a full year into the future. Along with seasonal influences, other challenges in real estate forecasting include changing interest and employment rates, ever-shifting home inventory levels, plus a myriad of lending regulations and the mysteries of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, just to name a few.  Little wonder, then that some view real estate predictions as akin to flipping a coin or using a dart board.

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Although Fun, Darts Are Are A Poor Method For Accurate Real Estate Forecasting

Real Estate Forecasting: What Can Work
While not foolproof, one generally helpful tool for predicting future real estate trends can be past real estate trends. Major unpredictable shifts occasionally occur, but the key word here is occasionally.

For example, the Great Recession that hit Canby and the entire country starting around 2007-2008 was our nation’s worst economic downturn since 1929.  Thankfully we haven’t seen such financial meltdowns every year, or every decade, or even every half century. So aside from similar cataclysmic shifts, a certain degree of real estate predictability is possible. 

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Regional Home Price Chart Including Clackamas County

Reasons For 2015 Canby Real Estate Optimism
Several factors are coming together to provide for an optimistic New Year in our area. As you’ll see, some factors are under federal control and others occur locally, but each has an impact on Canby real estate. So if you’ve held off selling your Canby area home, here are four of them that portend a good 2015: 

1. Credit Scores Loosen
Most homebuyers need a home loan, generally known as a mortgage. The good news is that mortgage credit is becoming more available as lenders loosen credit requirements.

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Credit (FICO) Requirements Have Loosened

2. Lower Down Payments
Government-sponsored loans from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently brought out a 3% mortgage option. If conventional lenders also start offering similar low-down payment choices, this could bring more first time homebuyers into the market. This vital Oregon buyer group has long been under-represented, with their levels at the lowest since 1987.

3. Consumer Optimism
Recent figures from the National Association of Realtors confirm homebuyers are now more optimistic. This includes our area. When it comes to single family homes, the ‘Confidence Index’ chart below shows most states now have a majority level of optimism in their region, including ours.

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Orange & Red = Strong Single Family Home Consumer Confidence

4. Home Inventory Remains Low
Thanks in part to the reduced level of local new construction, home inventory in our region is still near historic lows. Our most recent survey shows we have 3.2 months of housing backlog. This suggests we have more buyers than sellers. As a result, Canby homesellers can take advantage of what remains largely a ‘seller’s market’ heading into 2015. 

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Our Regional Home Supply Is Low

The Bottom Line
If you’ve held off selling your Canby home because you were ‘under water,’ or concerned about the market being too low, now is a good time to consider re-evaluating.

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Many Canby Homeowners Are No Longer ‘Under Water’

Canby’s real estate market has changed. Experts predict regional home price growth to continue at a steady, albeit slower pace through 2015, compared to the 7.2% price increase to date for 2014. As a result, some suggest a 3% annual increase in area home prices. Depending on a variety of factors, that may indeed end up being conservative on the low end. For Canby, expect between 3% to 6% in 2015 home price appreciation.

Canby Home Prices Grow

15 May

A recent report on Canby area real estate confirms a continued solid increase in local home values. Compared to last year, Canby area home prices are now 15.3% higher. If this trend continues, we could be well on our way to a banner year for Canby real estate. 

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Canby Home Prices Are Up 15.3% Over The Past Year-Click Image to Enlarge

A comparison of price growth among local communities reveals Canby is now among the top tier for regional home price growth.

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Like Canby, Regional Home Prices As Shown on This Graph Are Also Climbing

Why Is Our Canby Real Estate Market Strengthening?
There are several factors helping to boost Canby area home prices. These include Oregon’s real estate seasonality, which brings improved home buying weather this time of year. Gains are also due in part to a continued recovery from the Great Recession which began around December, 2007. However, perhaps the key reason to explain our real estate boost is a significantly reduced inventory of homes for sale. 

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Our Region Would Run Out of Homes in 2.8 Months

According to the latest housing inventory report from the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS), the greater Portland Metro area will now ‘run out of homes’ in 2.8 months. Click here for this new FREE report, with helpful information on Canby area real estate.

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Canby’s Title As ‘The Garden Spot’ is Well Deserved

What Does This Mean For Canby Homebuyers & Homesellers?
Low home inventory means there are fewer houses for sale. A main effect of having fewer homes for sale typically means less selection and higher prices. This is the classic ‘seller’s market,’ where buyers lose a significant amount of leverage. This means buyers have to compete more against one another to find a desirable home.

As a result, home prices rise. If you’ve thought about selling your Canby home, this may be your best opportunity for the foreseeable future. However, if Canby home owners en masse begin sensing the time is right to sell, such a concomitant increase in supply could cancel projected home price gains.

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How Low Will Our Home Inventory Go?

Limbo, How Low Will We Go? Another reason for our home inventory’s newsworthy nature has to do with the time of year. We’re already trending slightly ahead of 2013 given our latest inventory figure of 2.8 months from April.  Last year, the months of May, June and July reported the lowest in all of 2014 for regional inventory. So the lowest number of available homes for sale may yet be ahead.

Timing The Market
Based on last year’s performance, homeowners may have another few months before the supply of homes begins climbing back up. So if you’re considering a Canby area home sale in 2014, acting sooner is likely to be in your favor before inventory rises and other events are factored in, like families purchasing before the school year begins.

Consult The Experts
Thinking about selling your Canby area home? Contact the experts at Certified Realty, Oregon’s choice since 1950, for a FREE report on what your property could sell for in today’s market.

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